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Friday, March 1, 2024
Udaipur Standard Hindi

Migration has added more to Delhi’s population than births: Economic Survey

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Migration will add 283,000 people to Delhi’s population in 2021, more than double the number of 101,000 contributed by births adjusted for deaths. According to the Economic Survey of Delhi 2022-23, 2021 is the second year in a row that migration has become a bigger factor in Delhi’s population growth – the total population is projected to reach 20.7 million in 2021 – than natural births and deaths.

The estimates made by the survey show that the natural population growth in Delhi remained relatively stable in the mark of 200000-250000 per year for a long period before the pandemic.  (HT Photo)
The estimates made by the survey show that the natural population growth in Delhi remained relatively stable in the mark of 200000-250000 per year for a long period before the pandemic. (HT Photo)

These estimates – the final numbers will be available only when the census is conducted – suggest that the reverse migration from Delhi during the 68-day nationwide lockdown imposed from 25 March 2020 was temporary.

The Economic Survey of Delhi publishes demographic trends based on population projections made by the National Commission on Population and birth and death rates published by the Civil Registration System (CRS). The former works under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare while the latter report is prepared by the Office of the Registrar General of India, which works under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), both under the central government. The Delhi government’s Economic Survey has used data from both of these to estimate growth in population, both naturally and due to migration.

The estimates made by the survey show that the natural population growth in Delhi remained relatively stable in the mark of 200000-250000 per year for a long period before the pandemic. It changed dramatically when it reduced to just 159000 in 2020 and just 101000 in 2021. The growth in migration was increasing almost every year, but not as fast as it has been since 2020. The increase in the population of Delhi increased from 158000. 220000 in 2019, 2020 and 283000 in 2021.

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How did migration growth exceed natural growth? The survey estimates are based on a simple calculation. It uses mid-year population estimates to calculate the change in population each year. It also uses this population projection corresponding to the birth rate and death rate given in the CRS to calculate the Net Natural Increase. The remaining increase in population is attributed to migration.

These calculations suggest that the sharp reduction in natural growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to a sharp reduction in the birth rate since 2020 and probably a rise in the death rate in 2021, when the health infrastructure of the national capital was overwhelmed by the deadly second . COVID-19 pandemic wave.

According to CRS, Delhi’s birth rate is expected to decline from 18.35 per thousand in 2019 to 14.85 in 2020 and 13.13 in 2021. The rates for 2020 and 2021 are the lowest birth rates since 2003. Delhi’s death rate declined from 7.29 in 2019 to 7.03 in 2020, but increased to 8.28 in 2021, the highest since 2003.

To be sure, if one were to use data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) instead of the CRS, the results on the importance of migration and natural increase in Delhi’s population might change. The latter may be lower than the actual birth and death rates if there is no universal registration.

The SRS estimates births and deaths using a sample survey. In the case of Delhi, the birth and death rates (available till 2020) as given by the SRS have produced smaller numbers than those produced by the CRS every year since 2003. In Delhi’s population, the former was still the major source of growth in 2020. However, the difference between the two sources was the smallest in 2020. SRS data is not available for 2021.

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